Five reasons for hope in the climate crisis

It’s not an easy time if you care about the climate crisis and the fate of our planet. In 2024, the global average temperature was the warmest ever on record, and the most recent international climate conference to try to get world leaders on the same page was a disaster.

Heck, we called it a “global Ponzi scheme.”

Not to mention the obvious: The Trump administration is no friend to climate action. Trump is a climate denier, and his administration policies (like pulling out of the Paris Agreement, doubling down on oil and gas, and preparing to flout basic science by declaring that climate change does not endanger public health and welfare, to name a few) mean the U.S. will not try to solve the climate crisis in bold and unapologetic ways—but rather exacerbate it to the detriment of peoples’ livelihoods and food access. The effects of climate change have significant global implications, including on the most marginalized communities.

But any notion that this is “game over” in the climate fight is wrong. People and organizations at the federal, state, and local level in the U.S. will continue to push for change.

We can win—but if we are not smart and effective enough, millions of lives and livelihoods will be lost, and we risk many parts of the world becoming uninhabitable.

Here are five reasons why we can win the climate fight.

1. There is a strong U.S. climate movement

Even without changing the mind of Trump administration staff, there are many other places where the climate movement can and will affect climate policy.

Massive tax credits for green energy and funding for low-wage households to reduce their energy costs and their reliance on fossil fuels are already baked into U.S. law, in particular the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The Trump administration may not be able to secure a majority to undo it. That’s because there is a political and economic constituency among Republicans that wants to keep at least some of these provisions.

For example, four Senate and 21 House Republican members have already gone on the record to oppose cuts to clean energy tax credits. If there is enough political pressure on Congress, most of the IRA’s provisions could be retained.

Oxfam and many other groups are opposing any attempts to repeal the IRA, alongside our efforts to protect Medicaid and social programs.

2. A majority of the U.S. population and economy are in places whose leaders are committed to the Paris climate agreement

Although the federal government has formally announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, many state and city leaders are poised to take significant action to lower carbon pollution. Half of U.S. states, representing more than half the U.S. population, have already committed to 100 percent clean energy. They can and should go much further to fund energy efficiency programs and help households to shift from using gas-powered heating and cooking to using electricity.

Ten states, such as Tennessee, Virginia and California, are considering bills to make oil companies pay for climate damages. Vermont and New York have already passed such laws. Research shows that if states and municipalities act ambitiously on climate, the U.S. could reduce its emissions by 60 percent below 2005 levels by 2035—even if the federal government does nothing to help. Not enough, but still substantial.

In addition, 20 states and cities including Minnesota and Hoboken, New Jersey are suing fossil fuel companies for damages. Meanwhile, litigation in state courts in Hawaii and Montana has forced governments to change policy. Some states like California and New York are doing what the federal Securities and Exchange Commission could not finish: Requiring large companies to report greenhouse gas emissions and disclose climate-related financial risks.

3. The courts are acting to limit the administration’s rollbacks

Under the first Trump administration, almost 80 percent of its regulatory actions were defeated in court. The second Trump administration faces a multitude of well-prepared litigators ready to challenge every attempt to roll back environmental protections, and is hampering its own legal efforts by sidelining its most experienced lawyers when writing executive orders.

Also, the administration is acting illegally in dismantling USAID, undermining climate finance and wider development and humanitarian assistance, even though USAID’s existence is protected by acts of Congress. Oxfam is litigating against this case.

4. The economy is already moving towards renewable energy

The renewable energy genie is out of the bottle. Renewable energy is cheaper, safer for human health and the environment, and a safer bet over the long-term. Corporations know that governments have no choice but to phase out fossil fuels, making any investment in fossil fuels a risky bet. It makes sense to invest in the skills, the technology and the market of tomorrow—not that of yesterday.

Another promising sign is that 95 percent of new energy capacity in the U.S. that is waiting to connect to the grid is carbon-free, primarily solar, wind, and battery. Around the world, countries are shifting to clean energy. In the Global South, 87 percent of capital expenditures on electricity generation are going into clean energy. The EU, Japan, and South Korea are also heavily moving to renewable energy. This means the U.S. will lose market opportunities to other countries if it tries to avoid phasing out oil, coal, and gas production.

The new administration can certainly slow the increase in renewable energy and phase-out of fossil fuels, but it will simply be delaying the inevitable. This is a reason to not give up, and a reason to not sit back. The slow pace of phasing out emissions, even under the Biden administration and other governments around the world, will lead to runaway emissions costing millions of lives.

5. Significant pressure can be put on companies directly—via consumer pressure—to reduce emissions

Americans can’t only hold the government to account—we can also influence  corporations and tell them that they must drastically reduce their emissions and switch to renewable energy without greenwashing. They must do this in a way that respects the human rights of workers and the communities where they operate.

Ending the climate crisis should not be left mainly to individuals. Companies drive emissions through their products and services. Only some companies are making it easy for customers to see the emissions content of their products or promoting affordable and easily accessible products like induction ovens, electric cars, or more efficient electric home heating and cooling systems.

We can show companies, through in-person protests, social media feeds, and feedback forms, that their behavior influences their brand, and that they should care about their reputation. Oxfam has been monitoring U.S. agribusinesses and reporting on the gaps between their climate promises and progress that is coming up short.  With the food sector consuming up to 30 percent of the world’s total energy, fossil fuels must be phased out rapidly and completely to avoid catastrophic outcomes.

What's next?

None of this is to suggest a glass-half full approach or that we can simply sit back and wait. The glass isn’t broken, and we can fix it. It will demand more inventive and ambitious action from the climate movement.

We need to convince enough members of Congress to insist in budget negotiations that the U.S. must pay its fair share to support climate action, and to prevent and address the harm people in the Global South face from climate change.

We will have to convince more of the U.S. public that climate action is an existential threat that requires much more political attention and funding--and that rich polluters must be made to pay.

Help us to end climate injustice

As billionaire-fueled climate change worsens, so does inequality. Oxfam is responding and bridging the gap amid climate, hunger, and humanitarian emergencies around the globe. In more than 75 countries, our teams are providing cash, food assistance, and emergency aid to help people in need right now while working to dismantle the systems that perpetuate poverty and injustice in the long term.

We’re thankful for supporters like you who make this work possible. But marginalized communities need more relief from climate shocks, persistent climate stress, poverty, and inequality. As needs remain high, help hold world leaders accountable and demand that they make polluters pay their fair share to fund a just and clean-energy transition, finally putting an end to the era of fossil fuels.