Which countries are most affected by climate change?

Climate change is a crisis for everyone, but the most impoverished people in the world are feeling its effects first and worst. And the poorest countries most affected by climate change are paying a high price for the greenhouse gases emitted by wealthier people in polluting countries. This article will show you which countries are most affected by climate change, why some countries are more vulnerable than others, and what we can do together to protect the human rights and livelihoods of people least responsible for climate change, yet who still suffer the most.

Why are some countries more vulnerable to climate change?

Countries that rely on agriculture, and are in the warmer parts of the world, are more vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. As the world heats up, and weather patterns shift and become less predictable, there is a higher likelihood of crop failures, making food more expensive. People in low- and middle-income countries, who frequently have a larger proportion of the work force engaged in agricultural labor, are more likely to be affected by extreme weather such as storms, droughts, floods, and higher temperatures.

In most of these places, women are among the most vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change: They represent nearly half the agricultural work force in low- and middle-income countries, but are routinely excluded from training, access to credit and extension services, and other measures that could help low-income women farmers adapt to and survive climate change.

Climate change is driving hunger and displacement in the countries most vulnerable and least prepared for its worst effects. Some of them are in West Africa, where cereal production fell by 11 percent from 2020 to 2021 and the number of people in need of emergency food aid went from 7 million in 2015 to 27 million in 2022. The lack of available financing to pay for measures to adapt to and mitigate climate change effects puts West Africans in a precarious position.

Why is it important to study the impact of climate change on countries?

There are strong links between climate change, poverty, hunger, and inequality. Climate change is making some countries more vulnerable to conflict as people compete for scarce resources, forcing people from their homes, and worsening many of the long-standing racial and economic inequalities that affect minority groups, women, and the poorest members of society. All these factors increase the need for humanitarian assistance for those facing conflict and natural disasters precipitated by climate change, and make it more and more difficult for people to work their own way out of poverty.

Countries most at risk from climate change

These are the bottom-10 of 180 countries in the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative ranking that assesses a country’s level of vulnerability, and readiness to leverage resources and financing for climate change adaptation solutions.

Chad

Chad is one of the poorest countries in West Africa and the world. The country depends heavily on agriculture and livestock, and most of the population lives in rural areas, making it particularly vulnerable to recurring drought and flooding attributed to climate change. Chad is enduring more than a decade of conflict both within the country and across the region. These factors are resulting in a drop in cereal production across the country, and hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced by conflict and climate shocks. In some areas, nearly 11 percent of the population is experiencing acute malnutrition. In 2022, Oxfam supported a project reaching 100,000 people suffering from food shortages, providing small animals, business training, and organization of saving-and-loan groups. One young woman we're calling Dawi (not her real name) reported that receiving three goats from the project, helped her improve nutrition for her family: “Even if I don't have food at home, my children can drink the milk produced by my goats. I worry less about them now."

Central African Republic

The Central African Republic (CAR) is one of the poorest countries in central Africa; more than 70 percent of the 4.7 million population is living in poverty. This along with the lingering effects of a 2013 conflict that displaced more than 700,000 people in the CAR make the country one of the least prepared to handle severe climate shocks likely to hit the country, including increases in temperatures, heavy and unpredictable rains, drought, and forest fires. These climate effects are likely to hurt the poorest people in the country the most.

Eritrea

Eritrea has already experienced a 1.7 degree-Celsius temperature increase over the last 60 years, which has affected its marine and land ecosystems, according to research by the World Bank. This is already resulting in a reduction in agricultural production, and impending changes in rainfall patterns and other climate change effects pose an additional and significant risk to rain-fed agriculture, which represents a third of the country’s economy.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Increasing temperatures in Africa’s second largest country will have a range of effects on the DRC’s various and diverse environmental zones. In some areas, it will result in increased rainfall and more numerous outbreaks of plant and animal diseases. Flooding and erosion will affect agricultural areas, reducing food production. In other zones, shifting rainfall patterns may result in drought. Both these outcomes will affect DRC’s poorest people who rely on growing crops for their livelihood. A further complication impeding DRC’s ability to adapt to climate change is the armed conflict plaguing the mineral-rich areas in the eastern parts of the country.

Sudan

Sudan’s geography varies from arid zones in the north to more fertile areas in the central and southern regions where most of the population relies on agriculture and raising livestock. A dire combination of increasing heat, variable and unpredictable rainfall, desertification, and conflict makes Sudan one of the most vulnerable countries. With many communities displaced by fighting over decades, the ability of agricultural areas to adapt to the changing climate using traditional methods to manage environmental resources has been impaired.

Guinea Bissau

Sea-level rise is a significant threat to this low-lying country on the coast of West Africa. With 70 percent of the population living near the ocean, flooding is a major risk to poor communities. Rice growing areas and ground-water resources inundated by sea water will affect farmer livelihood and access to drinking water, spreading water-borne diseases. Areas of Guinea Bissau experiencing severe drought and higher temperatures will see reduced agricultural production. Higher humidity in other areas along with sudden, unpredictable rainfall events will trigger destructive erosion, and epidemics such as malaria.

Afghanistan

Afghanistan is likely to experience warming temperatures higher than the anticipated global average increase, with some areas affected by drought. In some of the mountainous regions, melting glaciers will affect access to water for hydropower, human consumption, and agriculture. When these factors are combined with the many years of conflict that has left a large number of Afghans impoverished, it leaves the country as one of the most vulnerable and least prepared to cope with climate change.

Mali

Along with several other countries in the Sahel region of West Africa, Mali is vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change due to its heavy reliance on agriculture (comprising about half of the country’s economy, and employing a major part of its work force). Only a small proportion of the land in Mali is suitable for growing crops, making the country vulnerable to even minor changes in rainfall and increases in temperature. Since 2022, Oxfam is supporting the Improving Women's Food Security, Livelihoods and Resilience project in Mali that is helping women in three regions including Satou Coulibaly, a woman farmer living with a disability who has been struggling to grow groundnuts and millet in the changing climate. "It's getting harder and harder to get enough to eat,” she says. The project is designed to help farmers switch to more drought resistant varieties of rice and soy beans.

Sierra Leone

A coastal country endowed with mineral and agricultural resources, Sierra Leone’s economy relies heavily on farming for income, food, and employment. With between 80 and 90 percent of the population living in rural areas and dependent on agriculture, the country is highly vulnerable to increased temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns leading to droughts and flooding. Rising sea levels pose a risk to coastal communities. Oxfam worked closely with the FEMINET women’s farmer association to help its members learn how to improve their production of casava, an important crop in Sierra Leone. Supporting women farmers, who are some of the most vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change, is an important means to increase their resilience. “Training by Oxfam empowered us to enhance our crop yield, and not wait for men to do everything for us,” one member of FEMINET told Oxfam.

Madagascar

This island nation (fifth largest island in the world) has suffered from intense and destructive cyclone activity in recent years, averaging three per year. The increasingly variable and changing climate affecting Madagascar is bringing with it significant risks to its fishing, agriculture, and livestock sectors of the economy. The combination of storms and drought in recent years has severely affected the country: Lack of rainfall in 2023-2024 pushed “nearly 29 million people into alarming levels of hunger,” according to the UN.

How is Oxfam addressing climate vulnerability?

Oxfam is working with partners and advocates to counteract the effects of climate change on communities. We are pushing those most responsible for destructive greenhouse gas emissions, and those most capable of addressing the climate crisis, to reduce emissions and support affected communities to adapt.

In our environmental and climate change work we:

• Support small-scale farmers to adopt agricultural practices that will buffer them from the harmful effects of climate change.
• Work to enhance international climate ambition and cooperation by supporting the implementation of the Paris Agreement and driving equitable climate finance investments.
• Stand with Indigenous and other communities advocating for their rights to land, water, and food -- and address the drivers of deforestation and natural resource degradation.
• Call for a just and feminist transition from harmful fossil fuels to renewable energy and sustainable agriculture.
• Advocate for national action to equitably reduce emissions that contribute to the climate crisis and negatively affect human and crop health.
• Call on elected officials to protect those most vulnerable to climate change and invest in equitable solutions to the climate crisis.